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The Darwin of DAO

While we have considered DAO’s as a base for a stable democracy, it is apparent that they can serve as a base for any computation. Further, given the persistence of a successful DAO (the DAO for Bitcoin has persisted since January 3rd, 2009), it seems inevitable that...

The End of the World Problem

A problem that might occur with prediction markets and governmental policies might be described as the End of the World problem. Suppose we are evaluating a policy that is very good, but has the small problem that is has a 20% probability of causing the end of the...

Electing the President

Most democracies have an Executive Officer, such as the President of the United States, typically elected either directly or indirectly by the people. In a DAO Democracy, assuming we retain the Executive Branch in more or less its current form, the simplest approach...

Membership

Another problem with evaluating collective welfare is membership in the collective: who do we add and who do we remove? We consider criteria that are suitable for membership in a nation (in contrast with membership in the local chess club, or a student in a school, or...

Trading Democratic Collective Welfare

We now give an example of how to buy and sell DCWi in a prediction market. First, a trader purchases a pair of conditional bearer bonds from a bank for $1 in the year 2016. The first says “Pay to bearer $1 times DCW2016” The second says “Pay to bearer $1 times...

Democratic Collective Welfare

– Ralph Merkle State of Satisfaction.   Annually, all citizens are asked to rank the year just passed between 0 and 1 (inclusive). If you wish, you can think of this as a poll of each citizen’s individual welfare, where 0 means the welfare of the citizen that...

Governing by Prediction Market

– Ralph Merkle Futarchy, proposed by Robin Hanson, is a proposal to govern by prediction markets. The proposal seems like an excellent approach for improving upon existing democratic forms of governance. The general concept: To aggregate knowledge from across a...

Archimedes

– by Mark Twain “Give me whereon to stand”, said Archimedes, “and I will move the earth.” The boast was a pretty safe one, for he knew quite well that the standing place was wanting, and always would be wanting. But suppose he had moved...